Fantasy Baseball Trade Evaluation
This year, I'm in a couple of competitive, play-for-money, fantasy baseball leagues. You'll get a few ramblings from me here about it, and soon in other venues (new site + videos coming soon!), but in case it interests anyone, below you will find my method for evaluating a trade.
This trade offer was the result of a lot of back-and-forth, and to cut it short I rejected it. I'm not going to mention team names for obvious (google searching) reasons, but in essence the target was Daniel Hudson, the Diamondbacks pitcher, and the offer eventually got up to [Lorenzo Cain (OF, Royals) or Mike Carp (1B, Mariners)], Phillip Humber (SP, White Sox), Guillermo Moscoso (SP, Rockies), Alexi Ogando (SP, Rangers) and Cliff Pennington (SS, Athletics). It was a tough decision, but the evaluation went something like this:
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Cain's MLE's last year regressed. Looking at his ML stats he has little/no power or walks, so his OPS is poor along with HR. He has good SB, and his BA may come back, but when I compared him to my current OF I wouldn't be starting him above them, and his long term projections just don't pan out for me. The alternative first slot, Carp certainly has better power, and actually his projections look pretty decent. However currently at 1B I have Konerko who would get the starting nod (age allowing) and Huff behind him as a backup. In the wings I have Goldschmidt who I've pencilled in long-term at first. I take GS as a better prospect than Carp.
Ogando I like, no beef there. The risk is that is hard to be sure what the Rangers will do, but I think he'll be good for a long while -- the lack of mileage in his arm will do him favours as he gets older. Pennington similarly I like personally short-term. It's one of the areas I targeted to improve, and Pennington is no doubt a short-term upgrade over Furcal. Nunez remains SS eligible, but that's a D2D decision. Pennington's still young, but his xBA took a downward trend last year, as did his Spd/SBO. I would have took him for this year, but would still have been looking to upgrade longer-term, and I have a couple of other offers out there involving SS. None of the projections give him much upside.
My main issue with the deal, compared to others I have and compared to no-deal at all are Moscoso/Humber. Shandler gives Moscoso a -$5 value in Roto for 2012, and the projected 8 QS and 1.4 WHIP aren't going to do much to offset that. His Road ERA was almost double his home, aided by pitching in Oakland, and now those home starts are at Coors.. I don't feel comfortable betting on him to repeat. Humber tells a similar picture, with a R$ of $1. Bill James is more optimistic for Moscoso (though may be assuming home starts were at OAK), but Rotochamp aren't, whilst the reverse is true for Humber.
Now if I look at what I'd have to cut, even allowing for the 4 player winter expansion (of which I'd have 2 spots left trading Hudson), I'd have to cut 3 and have no wiggle room for other trades. Vasquez is likely to retire (though not yet announced from what I can tell), and Narveson gets a Roto value of -$2 with little upside, so that's two. Salas even as a MR is projected to have some value with WHIP, K etc ($8 Roto), and who knows what will end up happening there, Davis/Raburn (2B eligible) and Vlad are all >$10 5x5 players, though age risks..
So I gain maybe $28 of value for Hudson, who is $18, let's say Salas at $8, and a draft slot, but $9 of that value (Cain/Carp) wouldn't be starting, $11 would but projections make me wary, leaving me with Ogando (good upside). I think I'd rather have that $18 of value in 1 player & the draft spot. It may well backfire on me, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Ogando (and maybe even Moscoso) ending up as $15+ players, but I just can't pull the trigger on that trade right now.
